Post-crisis literature concentrates on the problem of low inflation economic environment for which traditional factors of macroeconomic instability are rather not important. However, is this approach adequate in the case of post-socialist countries for whom the validity of euro-integration divide of institutional path of development takes place? Can the fact of factionalized societies explain the deviations from traditional form of opposite correlation between central banks independence and inflation? Using a sample of 22 post-socialist countries, it is found that there is inverse (traditional) relation between central bank independence and inflation. The degree of such correlation does not decrease much in the case of a lower inflation period. Development of democracy supports the choice toward higher central banks independence. The level of social conflicts affects inflationary instability and in the same time reduces space for consensus about increasing central banks independence. At the same time, the case of higher central bank independence and higher level of inflation compared to average group level (case of Ukraine) corresponds to the strongest fractionalization of society. This helps to conclude that institute of central bank independence is based on informal political rules of behaviour, incentives to maintain which are rooted in the nature of social disharmony.

JEL: E58, E59, O23, Q33.

Ключові слова

Central banks independence; inflation; factionalized societies; institutional quality; post-socialist countries.

Повний текст:



Grilli, V., Masciandro, D., Tabellini, G. (1991). "Political and Monetary Institutions and Public Financial Policies in the Industrial Countries". Economic Policy 6 (13): 341-92.

Cukierman, A. (1992). Central Banking Strategy, Credibility, and Independence: Theory and Evidence. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press.

Eijffinger, S., Schaling, E. (1993). "Central Bank Independence in Twelve Industrial Countries". Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review 184 (March): 49-89.

Scheller, H. (2006). "The European Central Bank: History, Role and Functions". Frankfurt/M. ECB. 2 ed.: 1-232.

Juncker, J.-C. (2015). Completing Europe's Economic and Monetary Union. EC. Brussels. 1-24.

Cukierman, A., Webb, S., Neyapti, B. (1992). "Measuring the Independence of Central Banks and Its Effect on Policy Outcomes". World Bank Economic Review 6 (3): 353-98.

Cukierman, A. (2008). "Central Bank Independence and Monetary Policymaking Institutions: Past, Present, and Future". European Journal of Political Economy. Vol. 24. (4). 722-36.

Debelle, G., Fischer, S. (1994). "How Independent Should Central Bank Be?" Goals, Guidelines and Constraints Facing Monetary Policymakers, ed. by J. Fuhrer, Boston: Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.195-221.

Jacome, L. (2001). "Legal Central Bank Independence and Inflation in Latin America During the 1990s". IMF Working Paper. WP/01/212.: 1-40.

Jacome, L., Vazquez, F. (2005). "Any Link Between Legal Central Bank Independence and Inflation? Evidence from Latin America and the Caribbean". IMF Working Paper. WP/05/75. 1-41.

Lubeck, T. (1999). "Central Bank Autonomy, and Inflation and Output Performance in the Baltic States, Russia, and Other Countries of Former Soviet Union, 1995-1997". IMF Working Paper. WP/99/04.: 1-38.

Arnone, M., Laurens, B., Segalotto, J-F. (2006). "The Measurement of Central Bank Autonomy: Survey of Models, Indicators, and Empirical Evidence". IMF Working Paper. WP/06/227.: 1-56.

Arnone, M., Laurence, B., Segalotto, J-F., Sommer, M. 2007. "Central Bank Autonomy: Lessons from Global Trends". IMF Working Paper. WP/07/88.: 1-53.

Bodea, Cr., Hicks, R. (2012). "Price Stability and Central Bank Independence: Discipline, Credibility and Democratic Institutions". November 6. 1-42.

Crowe, C., Meade, E. 2008. "Central Banks Independence and Transparency: Evolution and Effectiveness". IMF Working Paper WP/08/119: 1-30.

Dincer, N., Eichengreen, B. (2014). "Central Bank Transparency and Independence: Updates and New Measures". International Journal of Central Banking. Vol. 10. No.1. (March). 189-253.

Koziuk, V. (2016). "Independence of Central Banks in Commodity Economies". Gerald of National Bank of Ukraine. March. pp. 6-25.

Berggren, N., Daunfeldt, S.-O., Hellstrom, J. (2012). "Social Trust and Central Bank Independence". Paper Presented at World Congress of Public Choice Societies, Miami.: 1-23.

Siklos P. (2008, 02:). "No Single Definition of Central Bank Independence is Right for All Countries". Paolo Baffi Centre Research Paper. 1-42.

Dreher, A., Sturm, J.-E., de Haan J. (2007). "Does High Inflation Cause Central Bankers to Lose Their Job? Evidence Based on a New Data Set". KOF Working Papers. No. 167, 1-21.

Crivelli, E., Gupta, S., Mulas-Granados, C., Correa-Caro, C. (2016). "Fragmented Politics and Public Debt". IMF Working Paper. WP/16/190.: 1-31.

Acket, S., Borsenberger, M., Dickes, P., Sarracino, F. (2011). "Measuring and Validating Social Cohesion: A Bottom-up Approach". CEPS Working Papers. 2011-08.: 1-33.

Wagner, H. (1998). 'Central Banking in Transition Countries". IMF Working Paper. WP/98/126.: 1-26.



  • Поки немає зовнішніх посилань.